Betting on the underdog can seem like an appealing way to get a big payout from a small wager. After all, with odds stacked heavily against them, sportsbooks dangle the lure of a blockbuster score if the underdog manages to defy expectations. However most casual bettors simply back the dog in emotional hope rather than analytical skill. While thrilling, this approach seldom pays off over the long run.
By contrast, smart underdog bettors rely on cold hard data instead of sentimentality. They spot discrepancies between the true odds and the posted odds that offer profitable opportunities. Equipped with research and know-how, they can consistently beat the sportsbooks, like Πάμε Στοίχημα, at their game. Here are the best tips for making savvy underdog wagers:
Evaluate Underlying Metrics More Than Team Records
Casual bettors tend to consider team win-loss records above all else. However smart handicappers know that underlying metrics like yards per play, turnovers and quarterback rating better predict future results. A losing team with stellar metrics can more easily cover the spread than a winning squad that’s only lucky.
For example, in 2018 the Raiders went 4-12 straight up but 8-8 against the spread. Though heavy underdogs all season, their strong stats kept games closer than expected. Conversely in 2016 the Panthers had a 15-1 record but went just 7-8-1 against the number. Despite gaudy win totals, their weak offensive rankings foreshadowed regression.
So when evaluating an underdog, analyze key metrics like:
- Yards per pass/rush
- Turnovers lost
- Quarterback rating
- Defensive yards allowed
These offer greater insight on true team quality.
Spot “Play-up/Play-down” Situations
Sometimes underdogs perform above their skill level simply due to situational factors. Smart handicappers detect when motivation or emotions may spur a weaker team to “play up” against a stronger opponent.
For example, unranked college football teams often rally when hosting a top 25 team as big home underdogs. While they likely can’t pull the outright upset, the energized home crowd can help them cover inflated point spreads.
Conversely favored powerhouse teams sometimes “play down” the week before or after a huge rivalry game. Their focus gets divided looking ahead or basking in the past, allowing significant underdogs to sneak in a cover.
So check the schedule to identify motivational mismatches that can impact performance. These create profitable betting opportunities.
Compare Public Betting Percentages
Sharp underdog bettors also analyze public betting trends. Sportsbooks usually set lines to split action evenly between both teams. This ensures their “vig” commission regardless of the outcome. However, they sometimes move the lines to account for lopsided public money on big favorites.
While casual bettors pile on popular teams, smart handicappers use this as a fade opportunity. If 80% of bets are backing the favorite to cover a wide spread, yet the line stays put or even expands, that suggests respected sharp action on the dog. The books let public money dictate one side while pros grab value on the unpopular underdog.
So tracking public betting percentages can reveal which underdogs the experts view as live dogs. When betting against the public, the odds and payouts become more favorable.
Handicap Different Factors
Of course, precisely evaluating line value requires breaking down all influencing factors.
- Injuries – An underdog missing key players seems less likely to cover, while injuries impacting the favorite can help the dog hang around.
- Rest discrepancies – Underdogs tend to perform better with normal rest while favorites play down off short rest or long layoffs.
- Travel issues – Having to play a road game cross-country on a short week hampers the favorite’s preparation while boosting the home dog.
- Weather reports – Inclement conditions usually suppress scoring advantages, letting big underdogs utilize ball control strategies to shorten the game.
Accurately handicapping these variables builds a clearer forecast on the expected margin of victory. This reveals which teams present the most profitable odds.
Avoid Chasing Steam Moves
After an initial line posts, subsequent line movements that trail respected money are called “steam moves.” When sharp bettors grab undervalued dogs, sportsbooks adjust the lines accordingly.
Novices often chase these moves, jumping on dogs only after they read about line changes on news outlets. However by then the value has vanished. Savvy bettors identified the profitable dogs early before odds tightened. Late steam chasers lack proper edge.
So while tracking line moves offers useful intelligence, don’t base decisions solely on following steam. By anticipating which dogs will attract wiseguy money, you can beat them to the value play.
Bet Underdogs Strategically
Casually throwing money on big underdogs might seem fun but generally burns bankrolls over time.
To actually beat sportsbooks, handicap games through an analytical lens, understanding which metrics and situations offer genuine value. Don’t chase favorites; instead capitalize when their lofty odds permit profitable bets on live dogs at strong payouts. With research and calculated risk-taking, underdog wagers can certainly pay off. Just be sure to choose spots selectively based on the data rather than emotions.
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